What to watch in Ukraine in 2024

Overview:

This article from Brookings experts Michael E. O’Hanlon, Constanze Stelzenmüller, and David Wessel examines the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia as it heads into 2024, highlighting potential military and political turning points. It discusses the current stalemate on the battlefield, the vacillation of Ukraine’s allies, and internal political tensions in Kyiv, all of which could impact Ukraine's ability to defend itself against Russia.

Key Points:

1. The battlefield situation is largely stalemated, with the main action shifting to Ukraine’s skies. Russia has bombarded Ukraine’s cities and infrastructure, while Ukraine has managed to damage and drive the Russian Navy from its base in Crimea.
2. European countries, supplying more than 50% of Western aid for Ukraine, are struggling to maintain their support. Hungary's opposition to EU membership talks with Ukraine and the Slovak government's opposition to support for Ukraine highlight these challenges.
3. In the United States, President Biden is facing difficulties in gaining Congressional approval for his supplemental request of $61 billion for Ukraine.
4. Internal political tensions in Ukraine are rising, with criticism of President Zelenskyy and his government becoming more evident.

What They're Watching in 2024:

• The ability of the EU to provide additional funding to Ukraine and NATO's approach to anchoring Ukraine in Western security institutions.
• Whether either side in the conflict can break out of the military stalemates of 2023.
• The capacity of Western defense industrial bases and political will to keep up with that of Russia.
• The potential seizure of Russian assets by the international community to fund Ukraine’s reconstruction.
• The impact of the U.S. presidential race of 2024 on the situation in Ukraine.

Key Takeaways:

• The article underscores the complexity of the Ukraine-Russia conflict and the challenges faced by Ukraine and its Western allies.
• It highlights the importance of continued support from Western nations for Ukraine's defense and the potential consequences of a lack of support.
• The article suggests that the winter of 2023-24 could be a critical period for the conflict, both militarily and politically.

This is a brief overview of the article from Brookings. For complete insights, we recommend reading the full article.