How Trump Sees Allies and Partners

• The U.S. and Europe's pro-Israel stance in the war in Gaza, coupled with their response to Ukraine, is leading to global criticism and a potential shift in international relations, isolating them from non-Western countries.
• This situation offers autocratic nations like China, Iran, and Russia an opportunity to increase their influence, exploiting perceptions of Western moral inconsistency and opportunism.

• Carnegie Endowment expert Nikita Smagin writes that the Gaza conflict has reinforced Russia's belief in the correctness of its foreign policy approach, particularly in relation to the Western-centric international system.
• Russia views the conflict as an opportunity to further its geopolitical interests, especially amidst the ongoing war in Ukraine.

• Goldman Sachs Global Institute estimates AI could contribute 1.5% to annual productivity growth over a ten-year period, lifting global GDP by nearly $7 trillion.
• U.S. and China are top AI competitors, but geopolitical swing states like India, Japan, Israel, UAE, and South Korea can form "innovation blocs" and cooperate with each other.

• Hezbollah is a politically-powerful force within Lebanon, and now serves as Iran's equal partner and "most successful and lethal export".
• While Hezbollah and Hamas are on opposite sides of the Shia-Sunni divide, both groups find common ground under Iranian support and being anti-Israeli, anti-American, and anti-Western.

​

• This report highlights the intersection of growing U.S.-China geopolitical rivalry and the rapid development of military AI and how the U.S. can manage strategic risks.
• It discusses China's integration of AI into its military and civilian sectors, proposes ways for the U.S. to limit China's military AI progress.