U.S.-China Competition and Military AI: How Washington Can Manage Strategic Risks amid Rivalry with Beijing

Overview:

• This article was written by Jacob Stokes and Alexander Sullivan, with assistance from Noah Greene, from the Center for a New American Security (CNAS).
• It focuses on the escalating geopolitical rivalry between the United States and China, particularly in the context of military artificial intelligence (AI).
• The paper explores the potential strategic risks and management strategies in the sphere of military AI amid increasing tensions.

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Key Quotes:

1. "Many of the most practical uses for military AI in the near term will be for purposes that are relatively mundane but could help the PLA use resources more efficiently."
2. "The net effect, however, of multiple states compressing their decision-making timelines due to AI-augmented processes could be a global security environment that is faster-paced and more prone to miscalculation."

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What They Discuss:

• The rapid development of AI technologies for military applications and its potential impact on the U.S.-China geopolitical rivalry.
• China’s strategic investment in AI as a crucial element for its future military modernization and global technological leadership.
• The potential for military AI to inadvertently increase strategic risks and undermine stability in U.S.-China relations.
• Specific pathways through which military AI applications might affect the security dynamics between the U.S. and China, including in decision-making and information domains.
• The challenges and obstacles China might face in integrating AI into the People’s Liberation Army, and the potential for strategic surprises for the U.S.

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What They Recommend:

• Developing and implementing best practices and norms for responsible military AI use.
• Engaging with allies and negotiating risk reduction measures with China related to military AI.
• Making military AI a fundamental aspect of diplomatic discussions with China, especially in the context of nuclear weapons and strategic stability.
• Prioritizing intelligence gathering and analysis on China’s military AI capabilities for better assessment and policy-making.

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Key Takeaways:

• Military AI development is a critical factor in the intensifying strategic competition between the U.S. and China.
• Proper management and international cooperation are essential to mitigate the strategic risks posed by military AI.
• Balancing innovation in military AI with responsible usage and risk reduction strategies is crucial for global security and stability.

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This is a brief overview of Jacob Stokes and Alexander Sullivan's work from the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). For complete insights, we recommend reading the full article.