Overview:

• This op-ed from American Enterprise Institute scholar Hal Brands examines the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, particularly focusing on the global implications and the evolving dynamics of the war.
• The initial Western response to Russia's invasion appeared strong, but the long-term effectiveness of these measures is now uncertain.
• The war's outcome could significantly influence global power dynamics, especially regarding democratic resilience against authoritarian expansion.

Key Quotes:

1. "In the hopeful early months of the war — characterized by Ukrainian resilience, Russian incompetence and Western unity — it often seemed that the conflict was revealing the strength of the free world and the debility of its enemies."
2. "If the US and its allies can find the fortitude and commitment to see Ukraine through to an acceptable outcome... the conflict might still have mostly constructive consequences."

What They Discuss:

• The initial success of Western strategies against Russia's invasion, including sanctions and military support to Ukraine.
• The resilience of the Russian economy despite sanctions, with trade rerouting to Asia and strengthened ties with China.
• The potential for Russia to emerge as a more formidable, illiberal power post-war.
• Challenges within the democratic community, including political dysfunction in the US and "Ukraine fatigue" in the West.
• The uncertain future of the conflict and its implications for global order, particularly if democratic nations fail to maintain support for Ukraine.

What They Recommend:

• The article suggests the need for sustained Western commitment and support to ensure Ukraine's economic viability and military defense.
• It emphasizes the importance of increasing the costs for Russia's aggression to maintain global order.

Key Takeaways:

• The war in Ukraine is a critical test of democratic resilience against authoritarian forces.
• The outcome of this conflict could either reinforce or erode the current global order, depending on the sustained commitment of democratic nations.
• The situation remains fluid, and the long-term implications are still uncertain.

This is a brief overview of the work from the American Enterprise Institute. For complete insights, we recommend reading the full article.