2024 U.S. Elections

• Elaine Kamarck and Deirdre Keenan at Brookings argue that North Carolina has become a key swing state due to significant population growth and shifting demographics, particularly in the Raleigh-Durham-Cary area, which is attracting college-educated professionals and new residents from heavily Democratic states, indicating a potential Democratic advantage in upcoming elections.
• The analysis asserts that efforts by the North Carolina Democratic Party, led by Anderson Clayton, to mobilize young voters, re-engage rural communities, and contest every legislative race could generate significant momentum and potentially tilt the state toward a Democratic victory in the 2024 presidential election.

• William A. Galston at Brookings assesses the impact of first presidential debates since 1976, noting their significant but delayed effect on voter preferences, often detracting from the incumbent or their party.
• Recent debates show a 2.8 percentage point average voter shift, critical in tightly contested elections. Following the Biden-Trump debate, Biden's standing dropped 2 points, heightening the challenge of securing necessary electoral votes.

• Brookings expert William A. Galston reviews four recent polls of U.S. voters on the economy, comparing Biden and Trump on their economic records.
• Sixty-five percent of voters rate the economy as good during Trump’s presidency, compared to 38% under Biden.

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• The potential return of Donald Trump as President is influencing foreign governments' policy decisions, with some delaying actions in hope of better negotiations and others preparing for less favorable outcomes.
• The uncertainty surrounding US foreign policy under a potential Trump administration is causing both allies and adversaries to adjust their strategies far ahead of the US elections.

• Trump's win in Iowa was expected, and he secured over 50% of the vote, performing well across various voter groups.
• The race for second place was also as predicted, with Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley finishing second and third, respectively.

AEI experts explore the potential political impact of President Biden's support for Israel on his electoral prospects in Michigan, particularly among Muslim and Arab American voters.

The shift in Arab American support away from Biden in Michigan is important, but it is unlikely to be the sole deciding factor in Michigan's electoral outcome.