Artificial Intelligence

Overview:

The article from Valerie Wirtschafter at Brookings explores the potential implications of the AI boom, particularly generative AI, for nonstate armed actors in 2024. It discusses how these actors might exploit AI for criminal activities, including disinformation campaigns, recruitment, extortion, and intelligence gathering. The article also considers the challenges policymakers and law enforcement face in mitigating these malicious uses.

Key Points:

1. Generative AI can lower the technical threshold for actions like cyber espionage and cyberattacks, which were not previously major capabilities of nonstate armed actors.
2. Policymakers should focus on the harms of different AI systems or models, rather than just their size, as an indicator of risk. Auditing processes are also important to assess the risks and benefits of open-sourcing a model.
3. International consensus on common standards is crucial, especially with nations whose governance norms may differ from democratic partners like the United States.
4. AI can be leveraged by law enforcement and military personnel to detect potential harms, but success depends on effective utilization of these technologies.
5. Open collaboration in cyberspace has been critical in identifying and thwarting cyberattacks, but open-sourcing AI models poses risks of adaptation for malicious use.

Implications for Nonstate Armed Actors:

• Generative AI tools could enhance disinformation, recruitment, and intelligence efforts by producing convincing fake content.
• Predictive AI could be used to optimize weaponry and personnel deployment, reducing tactical advantages of state actors.
• Generative AI could facilitate cybercrimes like extortion and cyber-espionage by making spearfishing campaigns more sophisticated and difficult to detect.

Policy Recommendations:

• National legislation should focus on the specific harms of AI systems and include auditing processes.
• International cooperation is needed to establish shared standards for AI governance.
• Investments in AI tools for law enforcement should be balanced with respect for human rights and maintaining human control over decision-making processes.

This is a brief overview of the Valerie Wirtschafter's article from Brookings. For complete insights, we recommend reading the full article.

Overview:

• This article was written by Jared Cohen, George Lee, Lucas Greenbaum, Frank Long, and Wilson Shirley, published by Goldman Sachs Global Institute.
• It explores the transformative impact of generative AI on global markets, geopolitics, and the balance of power among nations.
• The authors discuss the urgent need for strategic planning during the "inter-AI years" to shape the future of AI-enabled technology.

Key Quotes:

1. "The emergence of generative AI marks a transformational moment that will influence the course of markets and alter the balance of power among nations."
2. "Decisions made today will determine what is possible in the future. A generative world order will emerge.​

What They Discuss:

• The article highlights the potential of generative AI to contribute 1.5% to annual productivity growth over ten years, lifting global GDP by nearly $7 trillion.
• It emphasizes the role of AI in economic growth, technological revolution, and geopolitical dynamics.
• The authors examine the US and China's position as AI superpowers and their complex relationship as competitors and collaborators in AI research.
• The significant role of large language models (LLMs) in AI innovation and competition is analyzed, along with the concerns and strategies of open and closed societies regarding AI.
• The impact of US-led export controls on semiconductors on China's technological development is discussed, highlighting the geopolitical implications.

What They Recommend:

• The authors recommend a strategic approach to AI development, balancing the need for innovation with the management of risks and geopolitical considerations.
• They suggest fostering international cooperation and partnerships in AI research and development to address global challenges and opportunities.

Key Takeaways:

• Generative AI is reshaping global economic and geopolitical landscapes, with significant implications for national strategies and international relations.
• The US and China are key players in the AI domain, with their actions influencing the global AI landscape.
• Strategic planning and international collaboration are essential for harnessing the potential of AI while managing its risks and challenges.​

This is a brief overview of Lucas Greenbaum, Frank Long, and Wilson Shirley's work from Goldman Sachs. For complete insights, we recommend reading the full article.